revisionist-20

近代欧洲各帝国的共同弱点

Stalin, Joseph

I INTRODUCTION 。

Stalin, Joseph (1879-1953), general secretary of the Communist Party of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republics (USSR) from 1922 to 1953, the despotic ruler who more than any other individual molded the features that characterized the Soviet regime and shaped the direction of Europe after World War II ended in 1945.。

Stalin was born Iosif Vissarionovich Dzhugashvili in the town of Gori, Georgia, which at the time was part of the vast Russian Empire. He was the third and only surviving child of a cobbler and a housecleaner. In 1888 Stalin began attending the Gori Church School, where he learned Russian and excelled at his studies, winning a scholarship to the Tbilisi Theological Seminary in the Georgian capital in 1894.。

II YOUNG REVOLUTIONARY 。

Stalin began his studies at the seminary as a devout believer in Orthodox Christianity. He was soon exposed to the radical ideas of fellow students, however, and began to read illegal literature based on the works of German political philosopher Karl Marx. In 1899, just as he was about to graduate, he gave up his religious education to devote his time to the revolutionary movement against the Russian monarchy. While employed as an accountant in Tbilisi, Stalin spread Marxist propaganda among railway workers on behalf of the local Social Democratic organization. After moving to the seaport of Bat’umi, where he organized a large workers’ demonstration in 1902, Stalin was hunted down and arrested by the imperial police. A year later he was sentenced to exile in the Russian region of Siberia. He soon managed to escape, however, and was back in Georgia by early 1904.。

When the Russian Social Democratic Labor Party (RSDLP) split into Menshevik and Bolshevik factions in 1903, Stalin was drawn to the more militant Bolsheviks, who were led by Vladimir Lenin. In Georgia, where Menshevism predominated, Stalin soon gained a reputation as a belligerent and staunch follower of Lenin, whom he had first met in 1905 at a conference in Finland.。

In 1905 Stalin married Yekaterina Svanidze, a Georgian woman who died two years later. Stalin was arrested and exiled by imperial police in 1908 because of his illegal underground activities. His escape the next year was followed by further arrests, exiles, and secret trips abroad during the years leading up to the Russian Revolution of 1917. In 1912 Lenin elevated Stalin, who by this time had adopted the Russian pseudonym meaning “man of steel,” to the leading Bolshevik Party body, the Central Committee. At Lenin’s behest, Stalin wrote his chief theoretical work, Marxism and the National Question. Stalin was arrested and sent to Siberia before the essay was published in 1913.。

Stalin was released from exile upon the overthrow of the Russian monarchy in the February (or March, in the New Style calendar) phase of the Russian Revolution. He went to Petrograd (later Leningrad; now Saint Petersburg), where he became a member of the party’s Central Committee bureau. He then asserted editorial control over the party newspaper, Pravda (Truth).。

Although he did not play a prominent role in the Bolshevik takeover of the government in October (November, New Style), Stalin became a member of the new government’s Soviet (Council) of People’s Commissars (Russian acronym, Sovnarkom), heading the Commissariat for Nationality Affairs. Given the vital importance of nationality issues at a time when the Bolsheviks were trying to keep the territories of the former Russian Empire under their power, Stalin’s post was crucial to the Bolshevik victory in the ensuing Russian Civil War (1918-1921). He was elected a member of the Communist Party’s highest decision-making body, the Politburo, and the Central Committee’s Orgburo (Organizational Bureau) in 1919. As a political commissar in the Red Army during the height of the civil war, Stalin supervised military activities against the counterrevolutionary White forces along the western front that were led by General Pyotr Wrangel. During the war between Russia and Poland from 1920 to 1921, his decisions as a political commissar ended in disaster and led to a long-standing conflict with Commissar of War Leon Trotsky. Meanwhile, Stalin, whose first wife had died in 1907, married Nadezhda Alliluyeva in 1918 and moved with the government from Petrograd to Moscow.。

III SOVIET DICTATOR 。

After the Bolshevik victory in the civil war, Stalin threw himself into organizational work and administrative tasks. Having served as commissar for state control since 1919, he continued this post until 1923, while in 1922 he was elected general secretary of the Communist Party, a position that gave him control over appointments and established a base for his political power. Stalin’s rude and aggressive behavior brought him into conflict with the ailing Lenin, who shortly before his death in 1924 wrote his political “testament” in which he voiced misgivings about Stalin. In the testament Lenin expressed doubt whether the party’s general secretary would use his authority with sufficient caution, and he called for Stalin’s removal from the post. Adroit political maneuvering enabled Stalin to have Lenin’s testament discounted and suppressed, however, while Lenin’s death freed Stalin to establish a ruling coalition with Lev Kamenev and Grigory Zinovyev, excluding Stalin’s rival Trotsky from the succession struggle. Stalin reversed his course in 1925 and joined with Nikolay Bukharin and Aleksey Rykov in a new coalition against his former partners, who in turn joined with Trotsky in 1926 to form an intraparty bloc against Stalin known as the “Left Opposition.” Once Stalin had succeeded in defeating these opponents, in 1928 he then turned against his former allies Bukharin and Rykov. By the end of 1929 Stalin had succeeded in political maneuvers that eliminated his political opponents and established him as the supreme leader of the USSR.。

IV DOMESTIC POLICIES 。

In the late 1920s Stalin decided the New Economic Policy (NEP), which Lenin had introduced in 1921 to facilitate postwar economic recovery by encouraging limited private enterprise, no longer worked. The rate of economic growth was declining and peasants were not producing enough grain to satisfy demand. Instead of giving the peasants economic incentives to raise production, Stalin chose a policy that forced them into state-owned collective farms. Simultaneously, he pressed forward with a program of rapid industrialization, which began with the ambitious first Five-Year Plan in 1928. Stalin believed the Soviet Union had to industrialize rapidly in order to strengthen the Communist regime and enable the country to defend itself against foreign enemies. The plan, which was financed by exploiting resources in the countryside, resulted in the near collapse of Soviet agriculture and the deaths of millions of peasants from famine. Industrialization was achieved, but at great cost.。

Although his hold on absolute power was unchallenged by the early 1930s, Stalin worried about potential conspiracies against him, especially after the suicide of his second wife in late 1932. Stalin set in motion a massive purge of the party following the assassination of Leningrad party chief Sergey Kirov in December 1934, which many have speculated was masterminded by Stalin because he viewed Kirov as a threat. Although the purge began gradually, with selective arrests in 1934 and 1935, by 1936 the Soviet secret police were arresting and executing party members by the thousands. Highly publicized trials of leading party figures—including Kamenev, Zinovyev, and Bukharin—were staged in Moscow and resulted in their swift execution on trumped-up charges. In 1937 and 1938 the terror spread to all of Soviet society, including the military high command. Estimates of those arrested and executed from 1936 to 1938 in the Great Purge range between 1.5 million and 7 million. Countless others were imprisoned in forced labor camps. Winding down at the end of 1938, the purge left Stalin with a new generation of officials loyal to him alone. However, the decimation of the military ranks left the country more vulnerable to the threat from Adolf Hitler’s Germany during World War II.。

V FOREIGN POLICIES 。

Although Stalin’s policy in the mid-1930s was to support the Communist International (Comintern) in forming a popular front against the rise of fascism in Europe, he gave up the idea of collective security with the West and in August 1939 decided upon an alliance with Nazi Germany. The “Secret Protocols” of the German-Soviet Nonaggression Pact carved up Eastern Europe into German and Soviet spheres of influence; the Soviets allowed Germany to invade Poland in exchange for Hitler’s promised nonaggression against Soviet territory. Despite warnings, Stalin was taken by surprise in June 1941 when the Nazis launched Operation Barbarossa, a three-pronged attack against the USSR. Although the Soviets were poorly prepared for the invasion and at first suffered huge losses, the country rallied behind Stalin, who assumed direct leadership of the war effort. Following their defeat at the Battle of Stalingrad in January 1943, the Nazis lost the initiative and were finally forced to retreat in 1945, which allowed Soviet troops to move into Eastern Europe. Having obtained recognition from Allied governments of a Soviet sphere of influence in these newly liberated countries, Stalin established puppet Communist regimes and drew the so-called Iron Curtain between Eastern and Western Europe.。

In 1947 the Soviets established the Communist Information Bureau (Cominform), an international body of Communist leaders that was to ensure conformity with the Soviet line. Yugoslavia was expelled from the alliance in 1948 after Stalin condemned renegade Yugoslav leader Josip Broz Tito for refusing to follow Soviet orders. That same year Moscow announced a blockade of Berlin, fueling the Cold War with the West. Stalin was determined to catch up with the United States in developing the atomic bomb; he ordered that no resources be spared toward that goal, which was achieved in August 1953, shortly after his death.。

A Final Years 。

By 1950 Stalin’s mental and physical health had begun to deteriorate and he was absent from the Kremlin, the government headquarters in Moscow, for long periods of time. His subordinates were fearful of becoming victims of Stalin’s growing paranoia, which manifested itself in plans for another purge. In January 1953 Stalin ordered the arrest of a group of Kremlin doctors on charges of plotting the medical murder of high-level Soviet officials. Just as a renewal of mass terror seemed imminent, Stalin died of complications from a stroke in March. Although the nation was plunged into grief, Stalin’s political successors expressed relief and moved quickly to reverse some of the most brutal features of his regime. Nikita Khrushchev, who replaced Stalin as general secretary (called first secretary until 1966) of the Communist Party of the Soviet Union (CPSU), denounced Stalin’s methods of rule and political theories, known as Stalinism, in his “secret speech” to the 20th Party Congress in 1956.。

B Evaluation

Stalin’s historical legacy is overwhelmingly negative. Although his policies transformed the USSR from an agrarian-based society into an industrialized nation with a powerful military arsenal, the transformation was accomplished at the cost of millions of lives. Stalin’s militant distrust of the West and his assertion of Soviet dominance in Eastern Europe gave rise to the Cold War. His purges of society through violent police terror left a permanent scar on the collective memory of the people under his rule. Although admired by some Russians, most would agree with the assessment in the West that Stalin was one of the cruelest dictators in history.。

GRE是什么考试？考些什么内容？

一流国家在世界事务中的相对地位总是不断变化的。主要原因有二：一是各国国力的增长速度不同；二是技术突破和组织形式的变革，可使一国比另一国得到更大的优势。例如，公元1500年以后问世的帆动力远洋炮舰和大西洋贸易的繁荣，就使欧洲各国受益不同，一些国家的发展速度比另一些国家快得多。同样，后来开发的蒸汽动力及其依赖的煤炭和金属资源，大大增强了一些国家的力量。一些国家的生产力一旦得到提高，便自然能比较容易地在平时承受大规模扩军备战的负担，能在战时保持和供养庞大的陆军和舰队。这种说法听起来似乎具有浓厚的重商主义色彩，但财富通常是支撑军事力量的基础，而要获取和保卫财富又总是需要军事力量。然而，如果一个国家把它的很大一部分资源不是用于创造财富，而是用于军事目的，那么，从长远来看，这很可能会导致该国国力的削弱。同样，如果一个国家在战略上过分扩张（如侵占大片领土和进行代价高昂的战争），它就要冒一种风险：对外扩张得到的潜在好处，很可能被它付出的巨大代价抵消了。如果这个国家正处于相对经济衰退时期，这种困境将变得更加严重。自16世纪西欧进步以来，西班牙、荷兰、法国、英国和目前的美国等第一流强国的兴衰史表明，在国家的生产力和取得收入的能力与军事力量之间，从长期看有一种非常重要的相互依存关系。

本书论及的“大国兴衰”情况，可简单概述如下。

第一章的论述为以后各章奠定了基础，即考查公元1500年前后的世界形势，分析明代中国、奥斯曼帝国及其在印度的穆斯林支脉莫卧儿帝国、俄国、德川幕府时期的日本和中西欧诸国这些当时的“权势中心”的长处和弱点。16世纪初期，中西欧诸国能否在世界民族之林脱颖而出，显然未见端倪。但是，东方帝国中的一些国家与欧洲各国相比，尽管显得不可一世、组织得法，但它们都深受实行中央集权制的后果之害。这些中央集权制政府都要求其国民统一信仰和实践，不仅要信奉一个官方国教，而且在商业活动和武器发展等领域都是如此。在欧洲由于没有东方式的最高权力机构，各王国和城邦之间争战不已，这就推动人们经常寻求军事变革。军事变革又有力地推动了在竞争、积极进取的环境中出现的科学技术与商业贸易的发展。欧洲社会碰到的变革的障碍很少，很顺利地进入了持续向上的螺旋式的经济发展，增强了军事效能，随着时间的推移，这些因素就使欧洲社会走在世界其他地区的前列。

科技的进步和军事的竞争推动着欧洲各国以其通常的互不相让、各显其能的方式向前发展。尽管如此，仍有可能在各个敌对国家中，有一个国家因拥有充足的资源而脱颖而出，超出其他国家，控制整个欧洲大陆。在公元1500年以后的大约150年中，西班牙和奥地利哈布斯堡家族统治下的王朝——宗教联盟就企图这么做，而欧洲其他强国则竭力阻止“哈布斯堡王朝争当霸主”的活动。这在第二章中有详细阐述。本书各章在论及一流强国的长处和弱点时，都进行比较分析，即放在影响整个西方社会的经济和科技变化这个更广阔的背景下进行分析，以便使读者更好地了解这一时期多次战争所造成的后果。

第二章的中心思想是，哈布斯堡王朝的君主们尽管拥有大量资源，但在一次又一次的战争中使地盘扩展过大，战线拉得过长，致使自己日益衰落的经济基础无法支持过于庞大的军队。其他欧洲大国在这些长期战争中也损失巨大，但它们想方设法地（虽很勉强）比哈布斯堡王朝更好地保持了物资资源与军事力量之间的平衡。

第三章的内容是发生于1660—1815年的大国之争，但这些战争很难轻易地概括为一个大集团与许多对手之间的斗争。在这个纷乱动荡的时期，西班牙、荷兰等以前的一流强国正沦为二流国家；法国、英国、俄国、奥地利、普鲁士这5个主要大国脱颖而出，逐渐主宰了18世纪欧洲的外交，并进行了一系列长期的联盟（这些联盟的成员变化很快）战争。在这一时期，最初由路易十四、后来又由拿破仑统治的法国，比历史上任何国家都更接近于控制整个欧洲。但是，它的努力总是由于其他强国组成的联盟反对而无法实现，至少是功败垂成。由于到18世纪初期供养庞大的常备军和国家舰队耗资巨大，能够建立先进的银行借贷系统的国家（如英国）比金融系统落后的对手，享有多方面的优势。但是，地理位置这一因素，在决定大国在许多变幻莫测的争斗中的命运方面，也起着非常重要的作用。这有助于说明为什么到了1815年，俄国和英国这两个“侧翼”国家已变得十分重要。两国既可随时参与中西欧各国的斗争，又由于地理位置的关系而不易受这些斗争的影响。此外，进入18世纪后，它们都在确保欧洲大陆均势的情况下，开始向欧洲以外的地区扩张。最后一点是，在18世纪中叶之后，英国发生了工业革命。这使它更有能力在海外建立殖民地和挫败拿破仑统治欧洲的企图。

在1815年以后的100年中，显著的差别是，长期的联盟战争完全绝迹。在欧洲形成的战略均势，得到了“协调的欧洲”各大国的支持，因为没有任何国家能够或试图建立霸主地位。在1815年以后的数十年中，各国政府主要关注的是国内动乱，并在本国所在的大陆不断进行领土扩张（如俄国和美国）。这种相对稳定的国际形势，不仅使英国这个在海军力量、殖民地和商业贸易等方面的全球强国发展到顶峰，而且由于良性的相互影响，还有利于它垄断以蒸汽为动力的工业生产。然而，19世纪下半叶，其他一些地区和国家也开始实现工业化。这使国际力量对比逐渐变得不利于旧有的一流强国，而有利于那些既有资源，又善于组织利用新生产工具和新技术的国家。在这一时期发生的几场重要战争（如在某种程度上的克里米亚战争，尤其是美国内战和普法战争等）表明，一些国家之所以在战争中失败，是由于它们未能实现军事系统的现代化，没有基础稳固的基本工业设施，来支持其庞大的军队和制造正在改变战争性质、造价昂贵、结构复杂的武器装备。

因此，进入20世纪后，由于科学技术的进步和各国国力的增长速度快慢不同，国际系统与50年前相比变得更加动荡，更为复杂。其主要表现是：第一，1880年后，世界列强为了在非洲、亚洲和太平洋地区建立更多的殖民地，展开了疯狂的竞争，它们这样做一方面是为了掠夺财富，另一方面是怕相形见绌；第二，各国在陆地和海洋竞相加强军备；第三，各国政府为了寻求盟友，准备战争，在和平时期便纷纷建立固定的军事同盟。然而，在1914年之前的一个时期内，除了各国为殖民地问题争吵不休和发生了多次国际危机外，每十年统计一次的经济力量增长指数表明：世界力量对比发生了根本变化，这一变化不利于已持续三个世纪的以欧洲为中心的世界体系。法国、奥匈帝国和刚刚统一的意大利等传统欧洲强国尽管做出了巨大努力，在竞赛中却逐渐落伍。相比之下，地大物博、横跨大陆的美国和俄国（这个沙皇国家的生产效率较低）则脱颖而出。在西欧各国中，可能只有德国有足够的力量跻身于未来世界强国之列。另一方面，日本不想把手伸得太长，只想称霸东亚。毫无疑问，所有这些变化将给大英帝国带来难以克服的巨大困难。现在，英国确实已经感到比半个世纪之前更难保卫其全球利益了。

虽然1900年以后的50年的主要发展可视为两极世界的形成时期，但一些“中等”国家（在第五、六章中将谈到）却多次陷入危机，整个体制的变动也绝非一帆风顺。相反，第一次世界大战中目不忍睹、血淋淋的大规模战役，却显示出德意志帝国比沙皇俄国具有某些优势，因为德国的工业生产组织有序，全国上下工作效率很高；而俄国虽然加快了现代化步伐，但仍很落后。可是，在战争的头几个月，德国尽管在东线取得了胜利，在西线却遭到失败，且其盟国在意大利、巴尔干和近东战区也连连败北。由于后来美国出兵，特别是提供经济援助，西方盟国终于拥有战胜其敌对联盟的资源。但是，对所有参战国来说，这都是一场使人精疲力竭的战争。奥匈帝国从地球上消失，俄国发生了革命，德国战败，法国、意大利和英国也为争取胜利遭受惨重的牺牲。仅有的例外是日本和美国，前者进一步加强了在太平洋地区的地位，后者到1918年已成为无可争辩的世界头等强国。

1919年后，美国迅速从国外撤军，布尔什维克掌权后俄国奉行孤立主义政策，使国际体制与基本的经济现实之间变得很不协调，其程度甚于本书论及的五个世纪的任何时候。战后，英国和法国的实力虽已削弱，但仍然是国际外交活动的中心。但是，它们的地位到20世纪30年代遇到了意大利、日本和德国等军国主义化了的“修正主义”（revisionist）国家的挑战。德国在欧洲称霸的野心远甚于1914年。从本质上看，美国仍然是世界上最强大的工业国家，而斯大林的俄国也正在迅速发展成为工业超级大国。所以，“修正主义”的“中等”强国遇到的难题是，如果它们不想被美苏两个大陆强国超过，就必须迅速对外扩张。对原有的中等强国来说，它们的难处在于，如应付德国和日本的挑战，它们自己的力量很可能也要受到削弱。第二次世界大战尽管跌宕起伏，却肯定了人们对国力衰微的担心。轴心国在战争初期取得了辉煌胜利，但最终无法克服生产资源比1914—1918年战争时更为不足的弱点。它们确实做到的一点是，占领了法国，削弱了英国，尔后即被同盟国的优势兵力所打败。1943年，人们在数十年前预测的两极世界终于来临，军事力量对比再次变得与全球经济资源布局相一致。

本书最后两章涉及的时代是两极世界时期。这一时期，在经济上、军事上和意识形态上，世界的确分为两极。两极世界在政治上的表现是多次出现冷战危机。美国和苏联这两个属于独特类型国家的地位，由于出现了核武器及其远程投射系统而似乎又得到了加强。这说明，目前的战略格局和外交格局已完全不同于20世纪初期，更不用说19世纪初了。

尽管如此，大国兴衰的进程仍未停止。当然，各大国力量增长和技术进步的速度各不相同。这不仅使全球经济力量对比发生了变化，也逐渐影响到政治和军事力量对比。从军事上看，美国和苏联从60年代至80年代始终是一流强国。由于两国领导人都像摩尼教徒那样站在极端的立场解释国际问题，它们之间的对抗必然导致不断升级的军备竞赛，这是其他国家望尘莫及的。

然而，在上述30年间，世界生产能力对比的变化比以前的任何时期都快。在1945年后的10年中，第三世界的工业产值和国民生产总值在世界上所占的比例很小，此后却不断增大。欧洲各国也治愈了战争创伤，成立了欧洲共同体，成为世界最大的贸易集团。目前，中华人民共和国也在以惊人的速度前进。战后，日本的经济发展非常之快，据测算，它的国民生产总值已超过苏联。相比之下，美国和苏联经济增长速度却慢得多，它们的国民生产总值和财富在世界上所占的比例自60年代以来便急剧下降。因此，撇开所有的小国不算，只从经济指数上看，多极世界已经再次变为现实，这是不言而喻的。鉴于本书主要探讨战略与经济的相互影响，用最后一章既论述目前各大国军事力量对比与生产能力对比之间的不协调性，又指出中国、日本、欧洲共同体、苏联、美国这当代五大政治经济“力量中心”所面临的问题和机会，看来是适宜的。这五大“力量中心”都想处理好国家拥有的手段与国家目标的关系这一自古有之的难题。大国兴衰的历史绝不会到此结束。

由于本书涉及的内容极广，不同的读者将出于不同的目的阅读此书，这是显而易见的。一些读者将得到他们希望得到的内容：既概括又相当详细地评述过去五个世纪的大国政治、经济和技术的变化对各大国地位的影响，以及平时与战时战略和经济的相互作用。鉴于本书书名所限，笔者既不论及小国，也不谈小国之间的战争。同样由于书名所限，本书论述欧洲的笔墨颇多，特别是在中间几章。但是，对于这一课题的专著来说，这是很自然的。

对其他读者来说，特别是对目前对总结“世界体系”发展的一般规律和战争发生规律十分感兴趣的政治社会学家来说，本书可能不尽如人意。为避免误解，在此必须澄清一点，即本书未述及康德拉季也夫经济发展周期与大规模（或全面）战争之间的关系的理论。此外，本书也未详细探讨战争起因的一般理论，以及是否由于大国的盛衰才爆发战争。同时，这也不是一部阐述帝国理论、帝国统治的影响（如迈克尔·多伊尔在其最近出版的《帝国》一书中阐述的那样）或帝国统治是否有助于加强国力的专著。最后，本书也不打算提出关于哪种社会形态和政府组成形式在战时能最有效地利用资源的任何一般性理论。

另一方面，本书汇集的大量资料无疑可供有关学者用来进行上述归纳与概括。但是，历史学家（而不是政治社会学家）在总结一般性理论时遇到的问题是，过去的史料浩如烟海，它们无法据此得出“确实”科学的结论。因此，虽然我们可将某些战争（如1939年发生的第二次世界大战）发生的原因归结于决策者害怕世界力量对比发生变化，但这一结论无助于解释始于1776年的美国革命战争、1792年的法国革命战争和1854年的克里米亚战争。同样，尽管我们可以指出，1914年的奥匈帝国是一个“衰落”大国引发大规模战争的良好范例，但“兴起的”大国德国和俄国在致使战争爆发方面也同样起了关键作用。对此，战争理论家们又如何解释呢?所以，各种有关帝国好坏、帝国控制是否受可测量的“力量/距离”比值制约的一般性理论，由于所依据的史料不同，对同一问题可能做出时而肯定、时而否定这样毫无意义的回答。

尽管如此，如果我们不管上述理论，只是观察一下过去500年的“大国兴衰史”，便可清楚地看到，在承认任何时候都可能有个别例外的情况下，可以作出一些有价值的结论。例如，我们发现在综合经济力量和生产能力对比的变化与国际系统中各大国的地位之间有一种因果关系。两个最好的例证是：16世纪以后世界贸易集中地由地中海逐渐移向大西洋和西北欧，1890年后的几十年中世界工业品集中产地又由西欧慢慢移向其他地区。这两个例子都说明，经济力量的转移预示着新大国的崛起。这些新大国总有一天会对世界军事形势和各国领土状况施加决定性影响。过去几十年发生的全球生产的重要力量向“环太平洋地区”转移，不只是引起经济学家的关注，原因就在这里。

同样，历史事实还表明，从长远看，在每个大国经济的兴衰与其作为一个军事大国（或世界性帝国）的兴衰之间，有一种显而易见的联系。其原因有二：第一，支持庞大的军队离不开经济资源；第二，在国际体系中，财富与力量总是联系在一起的。300年前，德国商业理论家冯·霍尼希写道：“一个国家当前富强与否不取决于它本身拥有的力量和财富，而主要取决于邻国力量的大小与财富的多寡。”

在本书各章中，这种观点将多次被证实。18世纪中叶的荷兰肯定比100年前要富有，但那时它已不再是一个强国，因为邻国法国和英国比它拥有更多的力量和财富。1914年的法国无疑比1850年的法国强大，但与强大得多的德国比较，法国就显得逊色，因此，它决不会由于自己比过去强大而感到慰藉。与鼎盛时期（维多利亚时代中期）相比，英国现在拥有的财富要多得多，其武装力量的武器装备的威力也大得多。但这些已毫无意义，因为它的产品产量已由占世界总产量的25%下降到约3%。如果一个国家比邻国强大，它的日子就好过；如果一个国家比邻国弱小，它就会遇到麻烦。

但这并不是说，一个国家经济力量和军事力量的增减将同步进行。从本书提供的大部分历史事例中可以看出，在一个国家的经济力量升降曲线与军事影响升降曲线之间，有一个引人注目的“时间滞差”。同样，这一点也是不难理解的。一个经济正在迅速发展的国家（如19世纪60年代的英国、90年代的美国和今天的日本）总希望自己越来越富，而不希望将巨资用于军备。半个世纪之后，国家的投资重点就可能发生变化。以前的经济发展造成的后果之一是，海外义务增多（因为要依赖国外市场、原料、军事联盟，可能还有基地和殖民地）。现在，其他或敌对国家在经济方面则以更快的速度发展，并同样希望扩大在国外的影响。因此，世界上的竞争愈演愈烈，市场股票的价值不断下跌；悲观主义的观察家谈论衰退，爱国的政治家号召“复兴”。

在这种令人担忧的环境中，大国往往会自觉不自觉地以比两代人之前多得多的费用用于国防，但仍然感到国际环境不够安全，这仅仅是因为其他国家发展得更快，正变得更加强大。西班牙帝国在纷乱的17世纪30年代和40年代所花的军费，要比16世纪80年代卡斯蒂利亚经济繁荣时期多得多。爱德华统治时，英国在1910年的国防开支，也比1865年帕麦斯顿去世时英国经济处于鼎盛期时多得多。难道1910年的英国人感到更安全吗?目前，美国和苏联似乎面临同样的问题，这在以后还要论述。大国走下坡路时的本能反应是，将更多的钱用于“安全”，因而必然减少经济“投资”，从长远看，使自己的处境更为困难。

从本书论及的500年历史中，还可以得出另一个普遍适用的结论，即为争夺欧洲或世界霸权而进行的大规模联盟战争的最终结局，与双方动员的生产资源之间有着非常密切的联系。反对西班牙-奥地利哈布斯堡王朝的战争、西班牙王位继承战争、七年战争、拿破仑战争等18世纪大规模冲突，以及20世纪的两次世界大战，都证明了这一点。一场令人烦恼的长期战争是检验双方力量的试金石。随着战争的进行，交战各方资源的多少将起越来越大的作用。不过，我们应该既做出上述概括，而又不陷入错误的经济决定论的罗网。尽管本书作者对追溯500年世界事务的“主要发展趋势”兴趣颇浓，但并不是说，经济决定一切，各国的成功与失败都出于经济原因。大量事实证明，还有其他多种原因，譬如地理位置、军事组织、民族士气、联盟体系等许多因素都可以对各国的国力起制约作用。例如，在18世纪，荷兰“联合省”是欧洲最富裕的地区，而俄国则最穷。可是，荷兰却衰败了，俄国却兴起了。个人的愚行（如希特勒的）和高超的作战技能（16世纪的西班牙步兵团和20世纪的德国步兵都很善战），都是决定战斗、战役胜负的重要因素。然而，毋庸置疑的是，在一场大国间（通常是联盟间）的长期战争中，胜利往往属于有坚实的经济基础的一方，或属于最后仍有财源的一方，就像西班牙舰长们过去常说的那样。本书述及的许多事实都将证明，这个重要意见虽然具有讽刺意味，却是正确的。正因为五个世纪以来大国的国力与经济力量相辅相成，弄清目前经济与技术发展趋势对当前力量对比可能产生的影响才有意义。这并不否认人们创造自己的历史。但是，人必须在既可提供机遇又可限制机遇的历史环境中创造历史。

一篇较早论述本书探讨的问题的论文，是普鲁士著名历史学家利奥波德·冯·兰克1833年发表的评论“诸大国”的文章。在这篇文章中，兰克考察了西班牙衰落以后国际力量对比的变化情况，并试图说明为什么一些国家崛起后又逐渐衰微下去。在文章的结尾，他分析了当时的世界形势，以及法国发动拿破仑战争想称霸欧洲的企图失败后发生的国际事件。在审视各大国的“前途”时，出于历史学家的职业习惯，他也踏入了预测未来这一无法确知的领域。

写一篇论述“诸大国”的文章是一回事，而写一本关于“诸大国”的书则是另一回事。我原来的打算是，写一本薄薄的“文章式”的书，因为我认为，让读者了解（可能只了解一些）有关各大国不断变化的发展速度的背景知识，或各大国面临的地缘战略问题就够了。当我开始寄出本书的前几章征求意见，或与有关学者谈论本书的主题时，有一点变得越来越清楚，那就是我的推测错了。读者需要更多的、更详细的背景知识，因为他们得不到有关各大国经济和军事力量对比不断变化的参考材料。正是由于经济历史学家和军事历史学家都尚未涉足这一领域，这方面的资料才较少。如果说在书中加进详细的背景知识材料有道理的话，那么这样做就是填补了大国兴衰史中一个重要空白。

post-revisionist era 什么意思?

GRE，全称Graduate Record Examination,中文名称为美国研究生入学考试，适用于除法律与商业外的各专业。由美国教育考试服务处(Educational Testing Service，简称ETS)主办，GRE是美国、加拿大的大学各类研究生院(除管理类学院，法学院)要求申请者所必须具备的一个考试成绩，也是教授对申请者是否授予奖学金所依据的最重要的标准。 另有，Generic Routing Encapsulation（通用路由封装）也简称GRE。

考试形式

Verbal（词汇）与Quantitative（数学）部分为笔试。 Analytical Writing（分析性写作）为机考。

编辑本段GRE考试最新改革变化。

简介

ETS将在2011年8月推出新的GRE考试。这次考试改革集中在三个方面 1. 考试内容 2. 考试形式 3. 算分方法 以下将从三个方面来进行讨论：

写作

写作部分将重点考察考生有针对性地对具体考题做出反应的能力，而非要求考生堆砌泛泛的文字。具体说来，这些重点关注的能力包括 · 清楚有效地阐明复杂观点 · 用贴切的事理和事例支撑观点 · 考察/验证他人论点及其相关论证 · 支撑一个有针对性的连贯的讨论 · 控制标准书面英语的各个要素 写作部分将联合考察逻辑推理和分析写作两种技能，并且将加大力度引进那些需要考生做出有针对性的回应的考题，降低考生依赖事前准备（如背诵）的材料的可能性。

语文

语言能力方面的考察将更加强调高级认知能力，力求更加深入并且真实地反映考生理解阅读材料并运用推理能力的情况。具体说来，这些能力包括 · 分析一段论述文字并推导结论；根据不完全的数据做推导；识别作者的前提/假设条件和视角； 理解语言文字的多层次含义，包括字面意涵，修辞意涵和作者目的等 · 挑选重要观点，区别主要论述和次要/相关论述；总结全文；理解文章结构 · 理解词，句和段落篇章的意涵；理解不同词和概念间的关系 强调复杂推理能力 · 更加突出高级认知技能 · 更多基于语境的理解，比如阅读理解 · 减少对于单纯词汇意义（通过死记硬背词表习得）的考察，取消类比和反义题 · 扩大文章选择面 新题型与新技能 · 从文章中选取一个句子，加量以回答问题。

数学

数学部分依旧关注和之前相同的数学概念，但是将引入更多的生活场景并且更加突出对考生解读数字的能力的考察。数学部分关注的能力包括 · 读懂量化信息 · 解读并分析量化信息 · 运用数学模型解题 · 运用算术，代数，几何，概率以及统计学中的基本概念和技能 强调量化推理能力 · 提高生活场景题和数据解读题的比例 · 提供在线计算器以减低计算量 新题型与新技能 · 键入一个数值答案 ETS相信这些改进有助于更好地测试各个考生未来（在研究生院）取得成功的潜力。

考试结构

目前，GRE CAT的考试思路与笔试相同，内容亦相近，但题目的分布和顺序都有很大的改动。CAT有4或5个Section，但只有3个Section计分，Verbal，Quantitative和Analytical中各取一个Section。试验性Section不计成绩，但因不能分辨第几个Section不计分，因此七个部分试题都应认真回答。ETS允许考生到考场熟悉设备(强烈建议！) 因结构的不定性，总共考试时间不定，一般不超过4个小时。考试整个过程如下： ·Tutorial -计算机辅导练习，时间不限 ·背景调查 ·Verbal语文，38题，30分钟-计分 ·Quantitative数学，30题，30分钟-计分 ·Identified Research Section -可能出现，一般会是个Mathematical Reasoning，而且会是最后一个部分，不计分 ·选择保留或取消成绩 ·选择报送成绩学校，最多4所 考题具体分布情况： ·Verbal 第1题~第7题：句子填空，每题有1至2个空项 第8题~第16题：类比，有5个选项配对 第17题~第27题：阅读(一长文，一短文) 第28题~第38题：反义，从5个单词或词组选项中过滤 ·Quantitative 第1题~第15题：2个数比较大小 第16题~第20题：计算及应用 第21题~第25题：图表分析推理 GRE Writing Assessment一般不超过2小时，考试的结构如下： ·Tutorial -计算机辅导练习，时间不限 ·Task 1 - 30 minutes中间没有休息 ·Task 2 - 30 minutes GRE Subject Test GRE专业考试分为数学、生物、物理、化学、历史、音乐、法语、西班牙语、计算机、经济学、工程学、教育学、地质学、美国文学、政治学、心理学和社会学等学科，各个学科的试题数目与形式各不相同，其目的主要在于测试考生在某一学科领域或专业领域内所获得的知识和技能以及能力水平的高低。 (1)数学类(M67——Mathematics)约66题，试题主要是针对希望攻读数学专业研究生的考生，侧重于数学专业的知识和技巧。除了基本的微积分运算外，还包括线性代数、数学分析等，要求考生能够举一反三。大约有1/4的试题涉及到复变分析、拓扑学、数论等方面的知识。 (2)物理类(P77——Physics)约100题，其内容主要涉及大学的物理课程。其中经典力学约占20%，电磁基础约占18%，原子物理约占10%，物理光学及波动现象约占9%，流体力学及统计力学约占10%，量子力学约占12%，狭义相对论约占6%，实验方法约占6%；其余9%主要涉及近代物理学的内容，包括有拉格朗日和哈密尔顿力学、原子和质子物理、低温物理及空间物理。 (3)化学类(C27——Chemistry)约150题，涉及大学化学课程的主要内容。其中，分析化学约占15%，无机化学约占25%，有机化学约占30%，物理化学约占30%。 (4)计算机科学类(C29——Computer Science)约80题，涉及大学电子工程专业和计算机专业的课程内容。其中，软件系统及方法约占35%，计算机与结构约占20%，计算机理论约占20%，计算数学约占20%;其他如数学横型与模拟约占5%。 (5)生物学类(B24——Biology)约205题，总共分成三个部分： 细胞与分子生物学 有机生物学 人体生物学，包括生态学与进化论 (6)工程类(E37——Engineering)约有140题，涉及大学基础及专业基础课程，内容包括机械学、传热学、电子及电子线路、热力学、材料特性等。在个别试题中也可能涉及化学、工程评价、光学、声学、计算方法、工程经济、流体力学、液压原理等。约有50题涉及到数学的应用，其中有一类试题是从研究数学模型到通过工程应用以完成操作;另一类试题是从研究直观数学概念，求出最佳方法，再应用到工程实践中去。 (7)经济类(E31——Economics)共有130题。其中，微观经济和宏观经济分析试题约占60%，包括公共财政、金融、数量经济与国际贸易;7%的试题为统计基本知识;其余33%的试题包括经济学的其他领域。 (8)教育学(E34——Education)约有200题，要分成以下五个部分： 教育目标 学校管理及监督 课程安排 教学与学习 教育评估及研究 (9)生物化学、细胞与分子生物学(B22---Biochemistry，Cell and Molecular Biology)参加这门学科考试的学生来自以下专业，即生物化学、细胞生物学、分子生物学以及其有关学科，例如微生物学、遗传学。该学科约180题，其试题内容涉及到三个领域，其中生物化学(36%)，细胞生物学(28%)，分子生物学与遗传学(36%)。 (10)地质学(G47——Geology) 约195题，共分成三个部分：2地层学、沉积学、古生物学、地貌学和海洋学2地质结构与地球物理学、大地构造学、重力学、磁力学、地震及地震学、热电特性2矿物学、岩石学、地球化学、同位素地质及经济资源等 (11)英国文学类(L64——Literature in English) 约230题，其内容集中在重大事件、社会活动、著名作家等方面。主要侧重于大学课程的知识，例如辨认作家、作品，概述并讨论历史事件，复述某篇名作的章节;还有一类试题侧重于学生阅读诗歌、戏剧、小说、散文的能力。后一类试题往往要求考生使用规定的结构、形式、文学技巧和风格进行作文。 (13)音乐类(M72——REVISED Music) 约200题，试题侧重于人们熟悉的基本概念与原理，作品的分析和讲解，包括风格、构成和历史时期，共包括三个方面内容： 音乐理论，其中有基本规则、和声、对位、节奏、形式、配器及管弦乐 音乐史(中世纪变态乐) 音乐史(20世纪古典音乐) (14)心理学类(P81——Psychology)约220题，共分为三个部分： 记忆、思维、知觉、人文学、比较心理学、生理学等，约占43% 个性、临诊、变态心理、心理发展和社会心理学等，约占43% 历史心理学与应用心理学、心理测量、心理统计，约占14%。

有玛雅文明的英文资料吗？

从字面上看，post-revisionist era 的意思是“后（历史）修正主义时代”。这个词中的 revisionist 与当年社会主义阵营的“修正主义”争论不是一回事。这里所说的 post-revisionist 是指对某段历史从新认识和定位的历史观提出之后的阶段。在理论界涉及 post-revisionist era 的通常是两个不同的历史研究范畴。一是美国教育领域里的 post-revisionist era，特指上世纪70's and 80's 之后的教育理念，即“每个儿童都能受教育”（no children left behind）的教育普及理念直至今天的这段历史。另一个是几乎在同一时期里，历史与社会研究领域里出现的对东西方冷战的反思，其 post-revisionist era 是指东欧社会主义阵营退出历史舞台至今的这段历史。

为什么橄榄球主要是用手玩的，美国人还是把它称为”football“

Mayan Civilization。

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Geography and Landscape。

The ancient Maya civilization occupied the eastern third of Mesoamerica, primarily the Yucatan Peninsula. The topography of the area greatly varied from volcanic mountains, which comprised the highlands in the South, to a porous limestone shelf, known as the Lowlands, in the central and northern regions. The southern portion of the Lowlands were covered by a rain forest with an average height of about 150 feet. Scattered savannas and swamps, or bajos, appeared sporadically, interrupting the dense forests. The northern Lowlands were also comprised of forests but they were drier than their southern counterparts, mainly growing small thorny trees. February to May was the dry season characterized by air that was intensely hot and uncomfortable. At this time of year, the fields had recently been cut and had to be burned in accordance with their slash and burn form of agriculture. The skies filled with a smoky grit, making the air even more unbearable until the rains came in late May to clear the murky atmosphere.。

Many dangerous animals occupied this region of the peninsula including the jaguar, the caiman (a fierce crocodile), the bull shark, and many species of poisonous snakes. These animals had to be avoided as the Maya scavenged the forest for foods including deer turkey, peccaries, tapirs, rabbits, and large rodents such as the peca and the agouti. Many varieties of monkeys and quetzal also occupied the upper canopy. The climate of the Highlands greatly contrasted with that of the Lowlands as it was much cooler and drier.。

Both the Highlands and the Lowlands were important to the presence of trade within the Mayan civilization. The lowlands primarily produced crops which were used for their own personal consumption, the principle cultigen being maize. They also grew squash, beans, chili peppers, amaranth, manioc, cacao, cotton for light cloth, and sisal for heavy cloth and rope.。

The volcanic highlands, however, were the source of obsidian, jade, and other precious metals like cinnabar and hematite that the Mayans used to develop a lively trade. Although the lowlands were not the source of any of these commodities, they still played an important role as the origin of the transportation routes. The rainfall was as high as 160 inches per year in the Lowlands and the water that collected drained towards the Caribbean or the Gulf of Mexico in great river systems. These rivers, of which the Usumacinta and the Grijalva were of primary importance, were vital to the civilization as the form of transportation for both people and materials.。

The Maya Culture。

Contrary to popular beleif, the Mayan civilization was not one unified empire, but rather a multitude of separate entities with a common cultural background. Similar to the Greeks, they were religiously and artistically a nation, but politically sovereign states. As many as twenty such states existed on the Yucatan Peninsula, but although a woman has, on rare occasions, ascended to the ruling position, she has never acquired the title of 'mah kina'.。

Mayan Writing

An elaborate system of writing was developed to record the transition of power through the generations. Maya writing was composed of recorded inscriptions on stone and wood and used within architecture. Folding tree books were made from fig tree bark and placed in royal tombs. Unfortunately, many of these books did not survive the humidity of the tropics or the invasion of the Spanish, who regarded the symbolic writing as the work of the devil.。

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Four books are known today:。

The Dresden Codex。

The Madud Codex。

The Paris Codex。

The Grolier Codex.。

The priests followed the ruling class in importance and were instrumental in the recordings of history through the heiroglyphs. The two classes were closely linked and held a monopoly on learning, including writing. The heiroglyphs were formed through a combination of different signs which represented either whole words or single syllables. The information could be conveyed through inscriptions alone, but it was usually combined with pictures showing action to facilitate comprehension.。

Political Organization。

In both the priesthood and the ruling class, nepotism was apparently the prevailing system under which new members were chosen. Primogeniture was the form under which new kings were chosen as the king passed down his position to his son. After the birth of a heir, the kings performed a blood sacrifice by drawing blood from his own body as an offering to his ancestors. A human sacrifice was then offered at the time of a new king's installation in office. To be a king, one must have taken a captive in a war and that person is then used as the victim in his accession ceremony. This ritual is the most important of a king's life as it is the point at which he inherits the position as head of the lineage and leader of the city. The religious explanation that upheld the institution of kingship asserted that Maya rulers were necessary for continuance of the Universe.。

Mayan Art

The art of the Maya, as with every civilization, is a reflection of their lifestyle and culture. The art was composed of delineation and painting upon paper and plaster, carvings in wood and stone, clay and stucco models, and terra cotta figurines from molds. The technical process of metal working was also highly developed but as the resources were scarce, they only created ornaments in this media. Many of the great programs of Maya art, inscriptions, and architecture were commissioned by Mayan kings to memorialize themselves and ensure their place in history. The prevailing subject of their art is not anonymous priests and unnamed gods but rather men and women of power that serve to recreate the history of the people. The works are a reflection of the society and its interaction with surrounding people.。

One of the greatest shows of Mayan artistic ability and culture is the hieroglyphic stairway located at Copan. The stairway is an iconographical complex composed of statues, figures, and ramps in addition to the central stairway which together port ray many elements of Mayan society. An alter is present as well as many pictorial references of sacrifice and their gods. More importantly than all the imagery captured with in this monument, however, is the history of the royal descent depicted in the heiroglyphs and various statues. The figurine of a seated captive is also representative of Mayan society as it depicts someone in the process of a bloodletting ceremony, which included the accession to kingship. This figure is of high rank as depicted by his expensive earrings and intricately woven hip cloth. The rope collar which would usually mark this man as a captive, reveals that he is involved in a bloodletting rite. His genitals are exposed as he is just about to draw blood for the ceremony.。

In the Indian communities, as it was with their Mayan ancestors, the basic staple diet is corn. The clothing worn is as it was in the past. It is relatively easy to determine the village in which the clothing was made by the the type of embroidery, color, design and shape. Mayan dialects of Qhuche, Cakchiquel, Kekchi, and Mam are still spoken today, although the majority of Indians also speak Spanish.。

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Mysteries of the Mayans。

By MICHAEL D. LEMONICK。

Unraveling the mystery of who the Maya were, how they lived--and why their civilization suddenly collapsed。

The crowd at the base of the enormous bloodred pyramid has been standing for hours in the dripping heat of the Guatemalan jungle. No one moves; every eye stays fixed on the building's summit, where the king, his head adorned with feathers, his scepter a two-headed crocodile, is about to emerge from a sacred chamber with instructions from his long-dead ancestors. The crowd sees nothing of his movements, but it knows the ritual: lifted into the next world by hallucinogenic drugs, the king will take an obsidian blade or the spine of a stingray, pierce his own penis, and then draw a rope through the wound, letting the blood drip onto bits of bark paper. Then he will take the bark and set it afire, and out of the rising smoke a vision of a serpent will appear to him.。

When the king finally emerges, on the verge of collapse, he reaches under his loincloth, displays a bloodstained hand and announces the ancestors' message--the same message he has received so many times in the past: "Prepare to go to war." The crowd erupts in wild cheers. The bloodletting has barely begun.。

Who were the Maya, the people who built and later abandoned these majestic pyramids scattered around Central America and who enacted these bizarre rites? The question has piqued scientists across a broad swath of disciplines ever since an American lawyer and explorer named John Lloyd Stephens stumbled across something strange in the Honduran jungle. In Incidents of Travel in Central America, Chiapas and Yucatan (1841), Stephens impressionistically described what was later identified as the ruined Maya city of Copan: "It lay before us like a shattered bark in the midst of the ocean, her masts gone, her name effaced, her crew perished, and none to tell whence she came, to whom she belonged, how long on her voyage, or what caused her destruction."。

More than 150 years later, the Maya seem less inscrutable than they did to Stephens, the man who discovered, or rediscovered, what they had left behind. Archaeologists have long known that the Maya, who flourished between about A.D. 250 and 900, perfected the most complex writing system in the hemisphere, mastered mathematics and astrological calendars of astonishing accuracy, and built massive pyramids all over Central America, from Yucatan to modern Honduras. But what researchers have now found among these haunting irruptions of architecture may be, among other things, reasons for admonishing today's world: at a time when tribal fratricide is destroying Bosnia and farmers are carving through the rain forest, the lessons yielded by the Maya have a disturbing resonance.。

The latest discovery, announced just this week, underscores how quickly Maya archaeology is changing. Four new Maya sites have been uncovered in the jungle-clad mountains of southern Belize, in rough terrain that experts assumed the Maya would have shunned. Two of the sites have never been looted, which will provide researchers with a wealth of clues to the still largely unsolved puzzle of who the Maya were--and the mystery of how and why their civilization collapsed so catastrophically around the year 900. Of course, considerable mysteries persist and always will. "I wake up almost every morning thinking how little we know about the Maya," says George Stuart, an archaeologist with National Geographic. "What's preserved is less than 1% of what was there in a tropical climate."。

Such limited and often puzzling physical evidence has not deterred growing legions of archaeologists, art historians, epigraphers, anthropologists, ethnohis torians, linguists and geologists from making annual treks to Maya sites. Propelled by a series of dramatic discoveries, Mayanism has been transformed over the past 30 years from an esoteric academic discipline into one of the hottest fields of scientific inquiry--and the pace of discovery is greater today than ever.。

Among the already addicted, Mayamania is easy to explain. Says Arthur Dem arest, a Vanderbilt University archaeologist who for the past four years has led a team of researchers unearthing the remains of Dos Pilas, a onetime Maya metropolis in northern Guatemala: "You've got lost cities in the jungle, secret inscriptions that only a few people can read, tombs with treasures in them, and then the mystery of why it all collapsed."。

The explosion of information has led to a comparable explosion of theorizing about the Maya, along with inevitable, often vehement, disagreements over whose ideas are right. Nevertheless, a consensus has begun to emerge among Mayanists. Among the first myths about this population to be debunked is that they were a peaceful race. Experts now generally agree that warfare played a key role in Maya civilization. The rulers found reasons to use torture and human sacrifice throughout their culture, from religious celebrations to sporting events to building dedications. "This has come as something of a shock to many Mayanists," says Carlos Navarrete, a leading Mexican anthropologist.。

Uncontrolled warfare was probably one of the main causes for the Maya's eventual downfall. In the centuries after 250--the start of what is called the Classic period of Maya civilization--the skirmishes that were common among competing city-states escalated into full-fledged, vicious wars that turned the proud cities into ghost towns.。

Among the first modern Westerners to be captivated by the Maya were the American Stephens and English artist Frederick Catherwood, who started in 1839 to bushwhack their way into the Central American rain forest to gaze at the monumental ruins of Copan, Palenque, Uxmal and other Maya sites. The book Stephens wrote about his trek was an enormous popular success and sparked others to follow him and Catherwood into the jungle and into musty Spanish colonial archives. Over the next half-century, researchers uncovered, among other things, the Popol Vuh (the sacred book of the Quiche Maya tribe) and the Relacion de las Cosas de Yucatan, an account of Maya culture during and immediately after the 16th century Spanish conquest written by the Roman Catholic bishop Diego de Landa. By the 1890s, Alfred Maudslay, an English explorer, was compiling the first comprehensive catalog of Maya buildings, monuments and inscriptions in the major known cities, and the first excavations were under way.。

With all this data, 19th century scholars began trying to decipher the hieroglyphic script, reconstruct Maya history and figure out what caused the civilization to fall apart. In the absence of any historical context, though, speculation tended to run a little wild. Some ascribed the monumental buildings to survivors of the lost continent of Atlantis; others insisted they were the work of the Ten Lost Tribes of Israel, or the Egyptians, the Phoenicians, the Chinese, or even the Javanese.。

The first half of the 20th century brought more excavations and more cataloging--but still only scratched the surface of what was to come. By 1950 the field was dominated by J. Eric Thompson and Sylvanus Morley of the Carnegie Institution of Washington. Both are still revered as brilliant archaeologists, but some of their theories have been overturned by new evidence. Among their now outdated ideas: that the city centers of the Classic Maya were used primarily for ceremonial purposes, not for living; hieroglyphic texts described esoteric calendrical, astronomical and religious subjects but never recorded anything as mundane as rulers or historical events; slash-and-burn agriculture was the farming method of choice; and, of course, the Maya lived in blissful coexistence with one another.。

Morley and Thompson presumed that certain practices of the ancient Maya could be deduced from those of their descendants. Modern scientists are more rigorous; besides, they have the advantage of sophisticated technology, like radiocarbon dating, which can help test their theories.。

Near the Mexican border of Guatamala, in the Maya city of Dos Pilas and the surrounding Petexbatun region, Arthur Demarest's excavations have put him at the forefront of the revisionists. He divides the history of the region into two periods: before 761 and after. Before that year, he says, wars were well-orchestrated battles to seize dynastic power and procure royal captives for very public and ornate executions. But after 761, he notes, "wars led to wholesale destruction of property and people, reflecting a breakdown of social order comparable to modern Somalia." In that year the king and warriors of nearby Tamarindito and Arroyo de Piedra besieged Dos Pilas. Says Demarest: "They defeated the king of Dos Pilas and probably dragged him back to Tamarindito to sacrifice him." The reason for the abrupt change in the Maya's battleground behavior, he suspects, was that the ruling elite had grown large enough to produce intense rivalries among its members. Their ferocious competition, which exploded into civil war, may have been what finally triggered the society's breakdown. Similar breakdowns, he believes, happened in other areas as well.。

Arlen and Diane Chase, archaeologists at the University of Central Florida, believe their work at Caracol, in present-day Belize, also shows that escalating warfare was largely responsible for that ancient city's abrupt extinction. Among the evidence they cite: burn marks on buildings, the uncharacteristically unburied body of a six-year-old child lying on the floor of a pyramid, and an increase in war imagery on late monuments and pottery. "Of course we found weapons too," says Arlen.。

While many Mayanists agree that wars contributed to the collapse, no one thinks they were the whole story. Another factor was overexploitation of the rain-forest ecosystem, on which the Maya depended for food. University of Arizona archaeologist T. Patrick Culbert says pollen recovered from underground debris shows clearly that "there was almost no tropical forest left."。

Water shortages might have played a role in the collapse as well: University of Cincinnati archaeologist Vernon Scarborough has found evidence of sophisticated reservoir systems in Tikal and other landlocked Maya cities (some of the settlements newly discovered this week also have reservoirs). Since those cities depended on stored rainfall during the four dry months of the year, they would have been extremely vulnerable to a prolonged drought.。

Overpopulation was another problem. On the basis of data collected from about 20 sites, Culbert estimates that there were as many as 200 people per sq km in the southern lowlands of Central America. Says Culbert: "This is an astonishingly high figure; it ranks up there with the most heavily populated parts of the pre-industrial world. And the north may have been even more densely populated."。

One inevitable consequence of overpopulation and a disintegrating agricultural system would be malnutrition--and in fact, some researchers are beginning to find preliminary evidence of undernourishment in children's skeletons from the late Classic period. Given all the stresses on Maya society, says Culbert, what ultimately sent it over the edge "could have been something totally trivial--two bad hurricane seasons, say, or a crazy king. An enormously strained system like this could have been pushed over in a million ways."。

What sorts of lessons can be drawn from the Maya collapse? Most experts point to the environmental messages. "The Maya were overpopulated and they overexploited their environment and millions of them died," says Culbert bluntly. "That knowledge isn't going to solve the modern world situation, but it's silly to ignore it and say it has nothing to do with us." National Geographic archaeologist George Stuart agrees. The most important message, he says, is "not to cut down the rain forest." But others are not so sure. Says Stephen Houston, a hieroglyphics expert from Vanderbilt University: "I think we should be careful of finding too many lessons in the Maya. They were a different society, and the glue that held them together was different."。

Just how different the Maya were is clear from their everyday lives, on which archaeologists are increasin。

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